On February 27, 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Weather Service (NWS) faced a seismic shakeup as hundreds of weather forecasters and other employees were terminated in what sources describe as a two-wave purge orchestrated by the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Reports peg the layoffs at up to 1,300 workers—approximately 10% of NOAA’s 13,000-strong workforce—marking the latest escalation in President Donald Trump’s pledge to slash federal bureaucracy. Spearheaded by billionaire Elon Musk and former Trump aide Vivek Ramaswamy, DOGE’s mission to eliminate waste has sparked both applause and alarm, with critics warning that the cuts threaten America’s ability to predict and respond to weather disasters.
The Cuts: Scope and Execution
The firings, confirmed by multiple outlets including the NY Post, The Washington Times, and AP News, targeted probationary employees—those with less than two years of service who lack the job protections of tenured staff. CBS News reported a precise figure of 880 layoffs on Thursday afternoon, citing a congressional source, though estimates vary. Former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean, speaking to AP News and The Washington Times, described two rounds of cuts: an initial wave of 500, followed by 800 more, based on insider accounts. Within the NWS, which employs about 4,500 people including 375 probationary workers, the layoffs hit meteorologists tasked with issuing daily forecasts and hazard warnings.
An administration official told CBS News that only 5% of NOAA’s staff were cut and insisted no “critical” NWS meteorologists were affected—such as those at the National Hurricane Center. However, an NWS source contradicted this, telling CBS that some local forecasters were indeed let go, raising immediate concerns about gaps in coverage. The terminations followed a chaotic week at NOAA, with DOGE representatives reportedly accessing agency IT systems to identify inefficiencies and diversity-related programs, per Axios and CNN, though NOAA and its parent Commerce Department have not officially commented.
DOGE: Trump and Musk’s Efficiency Hammer
The Department of Government Efficiency, a non-official advisory body led by Musk and Ramaswamy, embodies Trump’s campaign promise to “drain the swamp” and streamline a federal workforce he’s branded “bloated and sloppy.” Since Trump’s January 20, 2025, inauguration, DOGE has driven thousands of probationary firings across agencies, from USAID to the Department of Commerce, which houses NOAA. The NY Post framed the NOAA cuts as a logical step in this crusade, arguing that bureaucratic excess, not frontline workers, has long hampered federal performance.
Musk, whose Tesla and SpaceX ventures thrive on lean operations, has touted DOGE as a “maximally helpful” force, per his public statements on X. Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur turned political firebrand, has echoed this, calling for a “top-to-bottom” rethinking of government. Their influence is evident: NOAA staff reported to NPR that DOGE’s presence—complete with early-morning emails and demands for program audits—has sown confusion and fear since early February. A Guardian report noted that one DOGE action placed NOAA’s head of human resources on leave, signaling an aggressive push to reshape the agency.
NOAA’s Role and the Stakes
NOAA is no minor player. With a $6.5 billion annual budget, it oversees the NWS, the National Hurricane Center, climate research, fisheries management, and oceanic data collection—services that touch every American. “If you’re concerned about hurricanes, tornadoes, or tsunamis, that’s NOAA,” former official Andy Rosenberg told NPR. The NWS alone issues forecasts and warnings that save lives and billions in property damage yearly—a 2019 study cited by The Guardian found every dollar invested in it yields $73 in economic value.
Yet NOAA has been a conservative target for years. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint embraced by some Trump allies, labeled NOAA a “driver of the climate change alarm industry” and called for its breakup, budget cuts, and privatization of weather forecasting. Trump distanced himself from Project 2025 during the 2024 campaign, but his administration’s actions—including appointing Project contributors like Russell Vought as budget director—mirror its ethos. The DOGE cuts align with this vision, though Trump’s pick for NOAA head, meteorologist Neil Jacobs, suggests some intent to preserve core functions. Jacobs, confirmed by the Senate this week per Newsweek, led NOAA during Trump’s first term and navigated the infamous “Sharpie-gate” scandal in 2019.
Fallout and Reaction
The response was swift and polarized. Critics, including Democratic lawmakers and scientists, decried the layoffs as reckless. Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY) told AP News, “Hundreds of NOAA employees, including NWS forecasters, were given termination notices for no good reason.” Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA), ranking member of the House Natural Resources Committee, blasted DOGE’s “sham mission” to CBS News, warning that purging scientists “will cost lives.” Climate scientist Daniel Swain of UCLA posted on X that the cuts are “spectacularly short-sighted,” predicting a “self-inflicted wound” to public safety and economic resilience.
Tom DiLiberto, a fired NOAA climate scientist who spoke to CBS News, lamented the loss of dedicated talent. Set to end his probationary period on March 13, DiLiberto had forecasted El Niño patterns for over a decade. “These people have dedicated their lives to help others,” he said. “This is an insult to science.” Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) echoed this to CBS, arguing that NOAA’s mission to “protect lives and property” is now at risk: “People will die and face great hardship thanks to Trump and Musk.”
Supporters, however, see it differently. The NY Post editorial board hailed the cuts as a blow against inefficiency, with Elon Musk arguing on X that “bureaucracy has been the disaster” hobbling agencies like NOAA.DOGE proponents contend that private-sector forecasting—think AccuWeather or Google—can fill gaps, leveraging NOAA’s raw data (which Project 2025 wants commercialized). A Trump official told CBS the cuts were surgical, sparing “critical” staff, though the NWS contradiction muddies that claim.
The Bigger Picture: Risks and Uncertainties
The timing couldn’t be worse. As CNN reported, NWS staffing was already at its lowest in decades before the cuts, with hurricane forecasters stretched thin during a busy 2024 season. A February 5 CNN piece warned that a 5-10% staff reduction could impair radar operations and delay hurricane warnings—a dire prospect as the 2025 season looms. Former NOAA official Mary Glackin told CNN that hiring has been “painstakingly slow” for years, meaning replacements won’t come fast.
The cuts also coincide with broader Trump policies. A federal hiring freeze, briefly blocked in court per Newsweek, and a “deferred resignation” buyout program (noted by The New York Times) are thinning ranks further. NOAA staff told NPR they’re bracing for more slashes to research funding, especially climate programs flagged by DOGE for their “DEI” ties—reflecting Trump’s first-term aversion to terms like “climate change” in agency grants.
Privatization, a Trump interest since 2017, looms large. The Guardian and PBS News note that while private forecasts rely on NOAA’s free data, full commercialization could degrade public access and accuracy—AccuWeather’s 60-day forecasts, for instance, are right just 50% of the time, per meteorologist Chris Gloninger. Former FEMA head Craig Fugate told PBS that Project 2025’s push to limit NWS to data-gathering could kneecap forecasting, a risk now amplified by DOGE’s cuts.
What’s Next?
As of February 28, NOAA’s future hangs in the balance. Jacobs, the incoming head, knows the agency well but faced criticism in 2019 for bending to Trump’s whims during “Sharpie-gate.” Will he resist DOGE’s pressure? The Commerce Department, led by nominee Howard Lutnick—who told the Senate he won’t dismantle NOAA—may temper the cuts, but DOGE’s outsized influence suggests more upheaval ahead.
For now, the fired forecasters—some of the “best people you can imagine,” per DiLiberto—are out. The Trump-Elon efficiency drive rolls on, promising leaner government but risking a weather service too thin to shield Americans from the next storm. As one NOAA staffer told NPR anonymously, “We’re watching to see if we can still issue the reports people depend on.” The answer, like the weather itself, remains unpredictable.
