As of February 28, 2025, the North American battery industry finds itself at a crossroads—caught between a shifting U.S. energy policy under President Donald Trump, a relentless Chinese cost advantage, and a domestic electric vehicle (EV) market that refuses to slow down. Investors are pulling back, startups are folding, and industry leaders are scrambling to read the tea leaves of an administration that’s gone silent on batteries. The stakes are high: a sector poised to power the future of transportation and grid storage risks being left behind if it can’t adapt to the new reality.
A Conference Tells the Tale
The NaatBaat International conference, an annual must-attend for battery industry insiders, offered a stark snapshot of the unease. Attendance plummeted 20% this year, a drop that speaks volumes about the uncertainty gripping the sector. Where once CEOs, engineers, and investors buzzed with optimism about lithium-ion breakthroughs and grid-scale storage, now there’s a palpable sense of drift. “It’s not a ghost town, but it’s not the party it used to be,” one attendee told Bloomberg. The reason? A U.S. energy agenda that’s all-in on oil, gas, and critical minerals—leaving batteries out in the cold.
Trump’s Energy Vision: Where Do Batteries Fit?
Since taking office, Trump has made no secret of his priorities: fossil fuels and strategic minerals like lithium and rare earths dominate his administration’s rhetoric. Executive orders have poured resources into drilling, pipeline expansion, and securing mineral supply chains to counter China’s dominance. Batteries—cornerstones of the EV revolution and renewable energy storage—haven’t gotten a mention, positive or negative. For an industry that thrived under previous administrations’ green incentives, the silence is deafening.
Ben Steinberg, a prominent battery lobbyist in Washington, summed it up bluntly: “There’s not a single piece of paper that lists batteries in the affirmative or negative. You’re left out of all the executive orders, but you also didn’t get labeled as part of the ‘green new scam.’ This means we have work to do.” Steinberg’s point is clear: the industry isn’t outright targeted like some renewable sectors Trump has derided, but its absence from the agenda leaves it vulnerable. Without federal nudges—tax credits, R&D grants, or manufacturing subsidies—the U.S. battery ecosystem is struggling to keep pace.
China’s Shadow Looms Large
The timing couldn’t be worse. China, already the global leader in battery production, continues to squeeze competitors with unbeatable economies of scale and rock-bottom prices. From raw material refining to cell manufacturing, Chinese firms like CATL and BYD have turned cost into a weapon, leaving North American startups gasping for air. Dozens of small U.S. battery companies have shuttered in the past year, unable to secure funding as investors flee to safer bets. Wall Street’s enthusiasm for the sector has cooled, with venture capital drying up and stock valuations for battery firms taking a hit.
Even larger players aren’t immune. Delays in EV launches from legacy automakers like Ford and General Motors have rippled through the supply chain, slowing demand for domestic battery production. Yet the irony is stark: U.S. EV sales surged 30% in January 2025 alone, defying the slowdown in investment. Analysts still project EVs will claim 25-27% of new car sales by 2030, driven by consumer demand and state-level mandates like California’s. The disconnect is glaring—Americans want electric cars, but the industry powering them is stuck in neutral.
A Glimmer of Hope: Grid Storage and Market Trends
Amid the gloom, there’s a lifeline: grid storage. With utilities racing to stabilize renewable-heavy grids and prevent blackouts, demand for large-scale battery systems is soaring. Wall Street has taken notice, pouring billions into companies like Fluence and Tesla’s energy division. “Grid storage is the sleeper hit,” one analyst told Bloomberg. “It’s less sexy than EVs, but it’s where the smart money’s going.” If the battery industry can pivot to this niche, it might weather the storm.
The EV market, too, offers resilience. Despite Trump’s fossil fuel focus, his administration hasn’t moved to dismantle EV tax credits or roll back emissions standards—yet. That’s kept the sector afloat, even as federal support for battery innovation lags. Industry leaders argue that private capital and state policies could fill the gap, but only if the U.S. can compete on cost and scale—a tall order without a clear Washington playbook.
Adapt or Fade Away
The battery industry’s predicament boils down to two paths. It can adapt—doubling down on grid storage, forging partnerships with mineral-rich allies like Canada and Australia, and lobbying Trump’s team to see batteries as a national security asset tied to his critical minerals push. Or it can fade, ceding ground to China and watching a once-promising sector atrophy. Steinberg and his peers are gearing up for the fight, targeting Capitol Hill and the White House with a message: batteries aren’t just green tech—they’re economic and strategic muscle.
For now, the industry waits. Trump’s silence may not be hostility, but it’s not encouragement either. With China pressing its advantage and U.S. consumers embracing EVs, the clock is ticking. The NaatBaat conference may have been quieter this year, but the real test is whether the battery sector can find its voice—and its footing—in a Washington that’s looking the other way.
