A Staggering Rise in Federal Spending
In 2024, the United States federal government is projected to spend $6.75 trillion, a jaw-dropping 83% increase from the $3.69 trillion spent in fiscal year (FY) 2015, according to U.S. Budget Data reported by the Wall Street Journal. This escalation far outpaces the growth in federal revenue, which climbed by a comparatively modest 51% over the same period—from $3.25 trillion in 2015 to roughly $4.9 trillion in 2024. The result? Persistent and widening budget deficits that continue to balloon the national debt, now exceeding $35 trillion as of early 2025, per the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data.
Even when adjusted for inflation and population growth, the numbers remain alarming. Per-person federal spending, in inflation-adjusted terms, has risen 32%—from $15,357 in FY 2015 to $20,265 in FY 2024. Revenue per capita, meanwhile, grew just 9%, from $13,518 to $14,764 over the same timeframe, highlighting a growing disconnect between what the government collects and what it spends. This gap underscores a fiscal trajectory that experts warn is unsustainable without significant policy changes.
What’s Driving the Surge?
The Wall Street Journal identifies interest payments on the national debt as the fastest-growing expense in the federal budget since 2015. In FY 2015, net interest costs were $223 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). By FY 2024, CBO projections and Treasury data estimate this figure has soared to approximately $870 billion—a nearly 290% increase. Rising interest rates, driven by Federal Reserve hikes to combat inflation (peaking at 5.25%-5.5% in 2023), combined with a ballooning debt principal, have turbocharged these costs. The CBO forecasts that interest payments could hit $1 trillion annually by 2026 if current trends persist, outpacing spending on discretionary programs like education and infrastructure.
Social Security and Medicare, however, remain the heavyweight champions of federal outlays. In FY 2024, Social Security spending reached an estimated $1.4 trillion, up from $906 billion in 2015 (a 54% increase), while Medicare costs climbed to roughly $1 trillion from $634 billion (a 58% rise), per CBO and Treasury estimates. Together, these programs account for over one-third of total federal spending, driven by an aging population—by 2030, all Baby Boomers will be 65 or older, per the U.S. Census Bureau. The Social Security Administration notes that the program’s trust fund is projected to deplete its reserves by 2035, raising questions about future funding without reforms.
Other factors have fueled the spending boom. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented outlays, with emergency measures like stimulus payments and unemployment aid pushing FY 2020 spending to $6.55 trillion, per USAFacts. While those costs have waned, their legacy persists in elevated baseline spending. Defense spending, too, has grown—from $598 billion in 2015 to an estimated $850 billion in 2024 (a 42% jump)—reflecting global tensions and modernization efforts, according to the Department of Defense budget data.
Revenue Lags Behind
Federal revenue has grown from $3.25 trillion in FY 2015 to $4.9 trillion in FY 2024, a 51% increase, per U.S. Budget Data. This growth stems largely from a strong pre-pandemic economy, tax policy changes like the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and higher payroll tax collections as wages rose. Yet, it’s been outstripped by spending. The CBO notes that revenue as a percentage of GDP averaged 17.4% from 2015 to 2019, dipping during the pandemic but rebounding to 18.5% in 2024—still below the 20%+ needed to balance the budget at current spending levels.
The resulting deficit for FY 2024 is estimated at $1.85 trillion ($6.75 trillion in outlays minus $4.9 trillion in revenue), consistent with CBO projections of a $1.9 trillion shortfall. This marks a return to pre-pandemic deficit trends (e.g., $984 billion in FY 2019) after the $3.1 trillion peak in FY 2020, but it’s hardly a sign of fiscal health. Since 2015, annual deficits have averaged over $1 trillion, per Treasury data, doubling the national debt from $18.1 trillion to over $35 trillion by 2025.
The Role of DOGE and Calls for Reform
Enter the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a proposed initiative championed by figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to slash federal spending by $2 trillion over a decade. Posts on X highlight DOGE’s potential to target waste—like the Small Business Administration’s $3 million+ in unused software licenses (e.g., 17,580 excess ServiceNow seats)—but the scale of mandatory spending (Social Security, Medicare, interest) complicates such efforts. Mandatory programs, which are 70% of the budget per CBO, are politically untouchable without bipartisan will, leaving discretionary cuts as DOGE’s likely focus.
Experts diverge on solutions. The Bipartisan Policy Center suggests a mix of spending caps and tax increases, citing its 2010 Domenici-Rivlin plan to stabilize debt at 60% of GDP. The Peterson Foundation’s 2015 analysis of reform proposals estimated $5 trillion in savings over a decade via entitlement reforms and tax code simplification. Yet, political gridlock persists—Congressional leaders are currently negotiating a continuing resolution to avoid a December 2024 shutdown, per the Bipartisan Policy Center, with no long-term fix in sight.
A Fiscal Cliff Ahead?
Since 2015, federal spending has grown 83%, from $3.69 trillion to $6.75 trillion, while revenue trailed at 51%. Adjusted for inflation and population, per-person spending is up 32%, driven by soaring debt interest, an aging population’s demands on Social Security and Medicare, and post-pandemic spending habits. The Wall Street Journal warns that without action, debt could hit 122% of GDP by 2034, per CBO projections, risking economic instability as borrowing costs spiral.
The data paints a stark picture: a government living beyond its means, with deficits fueling a debt bomb. Whether DOGE, bipartisan reforms, or a fiscal reckoning forces change, the clock is ticking. For more takes, X.com is buzzing with reactions—search #FederalSpending for the latest.
Sources:
- U.S. Budget Data via Wall Street Journal (prompt baseline)
- Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Budget and Economic Outlook 2024-2034; historical data
- U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data: Debt, spending, and revenue trends
- USAFacts: Historical spending and revenue since 2015
- Social Security Administration: Trust fund projections
- U.S. Census Bureau: Demographic trends
- Bipartisan Policy Center: Deficit tracker and reform proposals
- Peterson Foundation: 2015 budget reform analysis
- Department of Defense: Budget data
- X.com: Sentiment on DOGE and spending waste (no specific posts quoted)
